The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, running June 1 through November 30, got its first named storm on June 17 when Tropical Storm Arthur formed, and forecasters are calling for a below-normal season overall.

What Forecasters Are Predicting

NOAA gives the Atlantic basin a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of near-normal activity, and just a 10% chance of an above-normal year, predicting 8 to 14 named storms with 3 to 6 becoming hurricanes and 1 to 3 reaching major hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher). Independent forecasters differ slightly: AccuWeather calls for 11 to 16 named storms, while Colorado State University’s team projects 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes.

Why This Season Is Expected to Be Quieter

An expected El Niño pattern is the main factor. El Niño tends to increase wind shear across the Atlantic, which tears apart developing storms before they can organize, even when ocean temperatures are running slightly warmer than average.

Why the Forecast Number Isn’t the Whole Story

A “below-normal” season doesn’t mean a harmless one. It only takes one storm making landfall near you to make it a bad year locally, which is why coastal residents should prepare the same way every season regardless of the seasonal outlook. Our hurricane preparedness checklist covers exactly what to have ready before a storm is even named.

How to Track a Storm as It Develops

Once a system is designated, the earliest warning signs usually show up on radar and satellite imagery well before local news picks it up. A live rain and radar map lets you watch rain bands rotate into your area in real time, which is exactly how tropical systems reveal their structure and intensity as they approach.

In Conclusion

“Below-normal” is a seasonal average, not a guarantee. With Arthur already on the books, the safest approach is to prepare early and keep radar open once hurricane season activity picks up, especially through the peak months of August through October.